Beyond Default Human Behaviors - Asim Abbasi

Chapter 1: Reducing the factor of making Wrong Decisions

There is a famous saying,

“All is well that ends well.”

So even if I teach you the art of making wise decision, there is still a chance that your decision will end up in a failure. Some call it ‘fate’ or ‘luck’, some call it the embedded ‘uncertainty’ in nature but I call it ‘God factor’. I used the word God just to make you understand but I personally remember Him as the ‘Supreme Progneer’ (Programmer & Engineer): The designer of this magnificent universe and enchanting living creations including but not limited to ourselves. The echo system and its programming in every aspects, how the living things relates to each other. How the existence of one creature is the cause of existence of others e.g. when the lion kills someone and eat to his full, there are thousands others who live on the left over. The development of human from microscopic level when sperm fertilizes egg to a point where it turns to a beauty and can write stuff and differ between good and evil. The level where he/she is an independent person and can eat, walk, talk, and above all can ‘think’.

The brain is a wonderful design and at the time of child birth its like empty computer just arrived from the factory to your home. If you put this computer in a environment of scholars there is a great probability that it will get utilized for scholarly acts but if you place it in the environment of criminals or bad guys there is a great probability that it will get utilized for bad purposes. Let’s take this analogy to a child’s brain. If I would had born in Einstein’s home there is a great probability that I would have continued his research on ‘Unification of Forces’. So it mostly depends on the environment but in some cases if the “Progneer” gives you light provided you have asked for it then you can shine in mud too. Again it comes down to what I say ‘Progneer Factor’.

Whenever we study stuff relating to sciences or other processes in nature there is one embedded fact that we should keep in the back of our brain i.e. Natural processes are programmed and have been made ‘automated unattended’ processes but those processes can be over-ruled by the Progneer: the designer/programmer of those processes.
This fact basically took us to the world of probability, uncertainty, and fuzziness in nature. As long as the process is running own its own; its running as programmed by the Progneer but when he wants something to happens, He says and we in the world discuss that although it happened but the likelihood was very low but it happened!

All the things we would be discussing in this book relates to the ‘High Probability’ stuff or like I said, natural processes as long as they are running automated, unattended as programmed and designed by the Progneer.
That’s one of the reasons we all pray irrespective of religion so that we don’t encounter any uncertain situation in life. When He sends the uncertain situation, He also sends the unpredictable solution and that’s why we sometime say, it was a miracle. We were not expecting this.

The art we are going to study will make you master in ‘High Probability’ area but remember the ‘Low Probability’ area which is although low but still there. Our job as human is to give the best we can and leave in rest to the Supreme Progneer as He is ultimate in Justice too.

The model we are going to present will help you in reducing the factor of making wrong decision. It is “Adaptive” in nature. Adaptive in nature means that you have to adapt it in your life and gradually you will start seeing its results. In the beginning you may or may not feel drastic change but you will notice that the factor for you being ending up in a wrong decision is greatly reduced. Any machine which is adaptive in nature will give you not much output in the beginning but with the passage of time its efficiency gradually increases to 100%. For example, in Electrical Engineering there is something called “Adaptive Filter” which a layman may consider as a machine having ideally zero efficiency the time it was designed but once you put that machine in a real working environment its efficiency will increase and a time will come when it would be working ideally at 100% efficiency. Regular machines are designed for specific environment but adaptive machines are designed for all environments. A regular machine’s efficiency is ideally 100% and it deteriorates with the passage of time where as the adaptive machines efficiency is ideally 0% and it increases with the passage of time.

Efficiency vs. Time Graph

Time

Figure 1: Adaptive Machine’s Efficiency ~ Time Graph

On the vertical axes it’s the efficiency of the adaptive machine whereas on the horizontal axes it shows the time. The time could be in hours or days. Adaptive machines in the beginning, shows zero efficiency but with the passage of time it will be very efficient. On the same lines if you adapt the model we are going to present, it will definitely reduce the factor of your decisions to end up in failure.

The art is based on two things

• Adaptive-Decision-Making-Model (ADMM)
• Optimizing the working of Brain

This art is applicable to every walk of life wherever there is decision making involved or getting the most optimal solution for a problem. Before moving ahead I want to explain what’s meant with “optimal solution”. Back in school days, from mathematics we have learnt that every problem has one answer (solution); simplest example would be 2+2 is always equal to 4. Contrary to this concept, in real life one problem might be having numerous solutions. Let me give you the analogy of computer programming. If you have to achieve certain target, you can do it by writing 5000 lines of code. An experienced programmer can achieve the same target by writing less lines of code e.g. 4500 or even 2000. So for every problem in real life there could be numerous solutions and our job is to pick the most “Optimal Solution”. And selecting the most optimal solution is called “wise decision making.”

Adaptive-Decision-Making-Model (ADMM)

When a average person encounters a problem he will take the decision right at the spot utilizing the knowledge he has in his mind. On the other hand, an intellectual person will handle the problem in the following manner:

• He will first analyze/understand the problem. Then, he will write down the target. Writing down the target is very important and that’s why I would like to use the word “engrave” rather than “write down”. So, he will, “engrave the target/goal on a rock.”

• Then he will try to figure out the time frame during which he/she has to solve the problem.

• Next he will lay down all the possible sources he has to solve the problem, for example, if he is an Electrical Engineer and he has been given the task to design some circuit, the possible sources of input for him would be: his Own Knowledge, his professors, Classmates/Colleagues, Internet, Books, etc.

• He will then follow the ADMM to end up in a “most optimal solution” during that time frame.

Note that the following steps are optional:

• Next he will divide the solution to modules and for each module he will write the steps of implementation. For dividing the optimal solution into modules or steps of implementation he may follow the ADMM again.

• Next, he will assign those modules & steps of implementation to related departments.

• The manager of each department will give him feedback regarding the progress. There are lots of web based project management tools using those the project director can watch the progress of the modules assigned to each department as the managers of those departments are constantly update the progress. As it is web based so no one has to move from his chair and it is universally accessible.

I have also heard people saying, “There is no solution to this problem.” Or “That’s the only solution to this problem.” I always explain to my students,

“There is no ‘No’ to anything.”

If you don’t know something, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. Moreover, if you are a solution provider, always add one statement at the end of your solution, “That’s the best I can give with the knowledge I possess.” If you don’t want to write it down, at least keep this in mind.

The smiley faces as shown in the diagram (Figure 3) represent problems. These problems could be anything relating to any aspect of life. Lets suppose we got the first problem at time t1. The first thing we have to do when we encounter a problem is to understand the problem. As shown in the figure we are spending time (t1 to t2) in analyzing the problem. This duration could be 1 minute or 1 month depending upon the complexity of the problem. Once you have understood what the problem is, the next step is to write down the problem in words and the possible sources of input to the model. At t2, use your own knowledge to generate all possible solutions for that problem and give them preference. First, will be what you consider the optimal solution at t2. How truly someone has said,

“Let the ball rolling.”
“Lets see how the cat jumps.”
“Let the time take the decision.”

With the passage of time many options will appear redundant clearly. So at t4 the set of options will squeeze down to three. Also note that the preference is not the same as it was in the beginning. At t6, you got input from one of the sources (Colleagues, Books, Internet etc.) which resulted in expansion of options and may bring change in the preference too. Again as the time pass many options will appear redundant clearly. Just before t8, we would be having less number of options and finally at t8, we will take the decision by selecting option 1 as “most optimal” solution for the problem. Always remember the solution you will end up with at t8, would be the best possible solution, utilizing all your mental power, time and available sources. Following this model will help you in reducing the factor of ending up in a wrong decision.

ADMM –Adaptive Decision Making Model

At t1

This is the time when you encounter the problem

t1 – t2

Analyze/Understand the problem

Just Before t2

Engrave the “Target/Goal”. Write down all possible sources of Input to the model

At t2

Start writing down all the possible solutions. Give them preference.

t2 – t3

Preferences may change

Some options will appear redundant, clearly

Preferences may change

ADMM (Adaptive Decision Making Model)

t5 – t6

May get input from other sources like Internet, Colleagues, Books etc.

Start writing down all the possible solutions. Give them preference.

t6 - t7

Preferences may change

t7 - Just Before t8

Squeeze the options by dropping the least preferred solutions

Most Optimal Solution

Implementation of Optimal Solution

Once you have the optimal solution, the next step is optional. Usually we divide the solution into “modules” and for each module we write down the steps of implementation collaboratively involving all project team members.

Optimal Solution Implementation

Depending upon the problem, you may have to follow ADMM again for each module. Like I said, time line could be 1 hour or 1 year depending upon the complexity of problem.

Physical Architecture of Human Brain

Optimizing the working of Human Brain

To get the most out of ADMM we have to optimize the working of our brain and to do so we have to first understand the logical architecture of brain. In the following lines we will be discussing three things.

• Understanding the logical architecture of brain
• Working of brain
• Best Practices

Human beings are supreme creation amongst all the creations of God. They are considered supreme because of the architecture or more precisely the logical architecture of the brain that we have, is different from His other creations. Human Brain the center for activities, emotions, relations, reactions, anxieties, happiness, grief, in short everything, is the central processing unit in a body. It’s just like microprocessor of the body.

The physical architecture of all human beings resembles but its the logical architecture which makes one Einstein and other me. The following picture gives you the logical architecture of the Brain. I made this picture with the best of the knowledge and experience I have in my mind. I felt it necessary because someone was right when he said, “A picture is better than thousand words.” In the following lines I am going to explain the picture or in other words the logical architecture of brain.

Logical Architecture of Brain

As I mentioned before, the physical architecture of all human brains resemble i.e. two hemispheres packed with winding/curly tubes. On the other hand the logical architecture of brain can be divided into following three sections

1. Database Inside Brain
2. Processes
3. Sources of Input to Brain

Figure 6: Logical Architecture of Human Brain

Every person has data/information residing in his/her brain and by the time child comes into the world its size is very small but with the passage of time the size increases. In this database the information is residing in the form of “Categories”. A person who is an electrical engineer, his category of electrical engineering information must be having lots of pages compared to his knowledge about medical stuff.

Figure 7: Logical Architecture of Human Brain

Similar if a person is a doctor, his category of medical information must be having lots of data in it compared to his knowledge about electrical stuff. Similarly, we all have certain categories in common e.g. food categories. Every one has data relating to food in their mind like taste of different fruits, smell of different dishes, deserts, recipes of making different food etc. One interesting category in database is ‘Experience’. There are many things we learn through experience; also we get the experiences from the life of other people. It’s because of this category that a person who did PhD in any field might end up in a wrong decision compared to his father who did just BS but has experience more than the PhD guy’s age. This reminds me something, once an author said,

“By the time a man realizes that his father was right, he usually has a son who thinks that he is wrong.”

Always remember that in the implementation of ADMM one of the great sources of input would be the old/experienced people around you. Processes on the other hand helps in the improvement/update, addition & deletion of information in the database inside the brain based on all the sources of inputs that are coming to the brain from all these five sense mentioned in the diagram e.g. experience process helps in the improvement and addition of information in the ‘Experience’ category in the brain.
Now let’s have a look on best practices. One of which is to increase the size of this database by consuming all the inputs we have, my suggestion would be to make the most use of “ear” and “eyes” than “tongue”. The cause of many problems is “tongue” and once an author said, “The tongue says: you take me out of mouth and I will take you out of xyz.” If you are married and if your wife owns the home in which you are living then you can replace ‘xyz’ with the word ‘home’.

Conclusion

Create a new process in your brain whose job would be to make sure that:

1. Your brain should always follow ADMM

2. Other processes are performing well as far as increasing and improving the data inside the database

3. You should “listen/observe” more and speak only when it’s extremely required.

Further Information (Mathematical Aspect)

If you want to learn the mathematical aspect to making decision, if you have large number of options and each option has factors associated with it, the key word is AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). There is lot new mathematical processes developed but AHP is the place to begin with. There are companies who have software that helps you in making decision. At the back of those softwares, the code follows AHP algorithms. You can make a search @ Google to see the list of those companies.

Chapter 1: Reducing the factor of making Wrong Decisions

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Beyond Default Human Behaviors - Asim Abbasi